Introduction
Traditionally, the pursuit of strategic autonomy was largely confined to the defense sector – a restricted approach that prevailed for decades. More recently, however, a broader understanding of the term has emerged, expanding beyond defense to encompass foreign policy and international affairs. In this context, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (2019) defines strategic autonomy as “the ability to set one’s own priorities and make one’s own decisions in matters of foreign policy and security, together with the institutional, political, and material wherewithal.”
In today’s multipolar world, strategic autonomy has become pivotal, empowering nations – and groups of nations – to make independent decisions free from external influence or coercion. Underscoring the urgency of this imperative, the European Union (2020) equated the pursuit of strategic autonomy with political survival. As Borell (2020) noted, “unless Europeans act together now, they will become irrelevant in this transactional world.”
The salience of this concern intensified during the second Trump administration, which challenged Europe across multiple fronts, including trade, technology, and defense. These developments significantly heightened European anxieties regarding autonomy and highlighted the continent’s vulnerability. With Europe’s economic performance lagging, such a “Trumpian” approach, as Bell et al. (2024) observe, threatens to undermine Europe’s standing in the global economy, making the path toward strategic autonomy even more complex.
At this juncture, it is worth noting that while strategic autonomy is vitally important for Europe, it is even more critical for Africa, where the pursuit is inherently more complex. According to the OCP Policy Center (2017), Africa must approach strategic autonomy through the lens of four interrelated components of the African strategic complex: geopolitical paradoxes, geo-economic dependencies, diplomatic inconsistencies and weaknesses of military interoperability.
Encouragingly, recent developments across the continent indicate a growing determination among African countries to assert greater strategic autonomy. Ethiopia’s experience under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed stands out as a vivid example of this momentum, guided by the philosophy of synergy (መደመር). This philosophy, rooted in the principles of unity, independence, and self-reliance, reflects the Ethiopian people’s longstanding aspirations (Horn Review, 2025).
Ethiopia’s recent advancements across a broad spectrum of sectors underscore Prime Minister Abiy’s commitment to advancing strategic autonomy at any cost. For Ethiopia, the pursuit of strategic autonomy is not merely a policy preference – it represents an existential strategic necessity in the face of mounting external pressures and complex internal challenges.
Currently, Ethiopia is undertaking significant steps to enhance its autonomy. One notable initiative is the implementation of the Homegrown Economic Reform Agenda, which aims to “safeguard macro-financial stability and rebalance and sustain economic growth” (FDRE Ministry of Finance, 2025). With proper implementation, this reform – alongside complementary initiatives – is expected to reinforce Ethiopia’s economic resilience and reduce its reliance on external actors, thus bolstering its overall strategic independence.
Promising Sectors of Fostering Strategic Autonomy
A closer examination of Ethiopia’s recent trajectory reveals that the country has actively sought to assert greater strategic autonomy across several promising sectors. Since assuming office in 2018, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has launched a series of strategic initiatives aimed at reducing external dependencies and enhancing national self-reliance. Among these, the corridor development project, the modernization of the defense sector, the quest for maritime access, the revival of naval capability, and the drive toward food self-sufficiency stand out as flagship efforts that collectively reinforce Ethiopia’s strategic positioning.
These initiatives underscore a deliberate shift in policy orientation – from reactive dependence to proactive agency – amid a regional and global context often characterized by geopolitical contestation and economic volatility. Despite concerted external efforts to discredit Ethiopia’s development agenda and impede its progress, the country’s pursuit of strategic autonomy remains resolute and forward-looking.
The following sectoral assessments offer valuable insights into how Ethiopia’s evolving strategy is not only reactive to external pressures but rooted in long-term national priorities. The lessons emerging from these domains provide a compelling case for the viability and necessity of Ethiopia’s ambition to achieve strategic autonomy.
The Corridor Development Project
Ethiopia’s ambitious Corridor Development Project has captured not only the attention of its citizens but also that of international observers and stakeholders closely engaged with the country’s development trajectory. With its strategic significance embedded within the broader national development agenda, the project represents a bold effort to reposition Ethiopia both economically and diplomatically. As Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed emphasized, the initiative is designed to lay the foundational infrastructure for Ethiopia’s long-term development vision (Ethiopian Press Agency, 2025).
Crucially, within the context of strategic autonomy, the Addis Ababa City Corridor Development Project—also referred to as the Smart City Project—serves as a critical instrument for asserting national agency. As outlined in the introductory section, strategic autonomy extends beyond defense and foreign policy to encompass economic and institutional sovereignty. In this regard, the corridor project exemplifies how urban transformation can function as a tool of foreign policy and strategic positioning.
According to Girma and Mulatu (2025), the Smart City initiative is poised to enhance Ethiopia’s global image, improve the investment climate, and strengthen the country’s capacity to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Its implications extend well beyond aesthetics or modernization; it plays a vital role in urban diplomacy, showcasing Ethiopia’s vision for sustainable growth, technological innovation, and global competitiveness.
Furthermore, the project contributes directly to economic sovereignty, a central pillar of strategic autonomy. By catalyzing productivity, improving infrastructure, and attracting global capital, the corridor project enhances Ethiopia’s resilience in a global economy often dominated by asymmetrical dependencies.
Needless to say, upon its successful completion, the project is expected to position Ethiopia as a regional hub for commerce, tourism, and investment – reinforcing its capacity to pursue an independent, proactive foreign and development policy in the years ahead.
The Effort of Food Self-Sufficiency
For decades, food insecurity has posed a critical challenge for Ethiopia, historically forcing the country to rely on international food aid to meet domestic needs. However, recent years have witnessed notable progress toward food self-sufficiency, marking a significant shift in both practice and perception. Ethiopia is increasingly working to reverse the narrative that positions Africa as perpetually dependent on humanitarian assistance – demonstrating instead a model of self-reliance in food production.
A key indicator of this shift is Ethiopia’s growing wheat production, which reflects the government’s targeted efforts to promote food sovereignty – a vital dimension of strategic autonomy. As documented by the Observatory of Economic Complexity (2023), Ethiopia now ranks as the 64th largest exporter of wheat globally, underscoring the progress made in transforming a formerly aid-dependent sector into a source of domestic strength and potential export revenue.
This transformation is also evidenced by the reduction in reliance on food aid, particularly wheat. According to Shiferaw Teklemariam, Commissioner of the Disaster and Risk Management Commission, Ethiopia has not received wheat in the form of humanitarian aid for the past three years (Fana Broadcasting Corporate, 2025). This milestone is more than symbolic; it reflects a structural shift toward agricultural resilience, enhanced productivity, and strategic policy direction.
The implications of this progress are significant. In reducing dependency on international food aid, Ethiopia strengthens its economic independence, mitigates the political conditionalities often attached to external assistance, and reinforces its strategic autonomy in both domestic and foreign policy decision-making.
By aligning national food production with broader security and sovereignty objectives, Ethiopia is not only addressing an enduring development challenge but is also advancing a model of agricultural self-sufficiency that contributes directly to its long-term vision of strategic resilience and regional leadership.
The Quest for Access to Sea and the Revival of Naval Power
Maritime access plays a pivotal role in enabling modern economic, geopolitical, and security development. For Ethiopia, the loss of direct access to the sea following the independence of Eritrea in 1993 represented not only a geographic setback but also a significant constraint on its strategic autonomy. Over the past three decades, Ethiopia has functioned as a landlocked state, heavily reliant on the port of Djibouti to conduct the vast majority of its imports and exports.
While this arrangement has facilitated trade continuity, the rapid expansion of Ethiopia’s economy has exposed the limitations of dependency on a single access corridor. As national and global dynamics shift, Ethiopia has recognized the urgent need to diversify its maritime access points in order to secure its trade routes, enhance geopolitical leverage, and assert its sovereign agency (Addis Standard, 2024).
In this context, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has taken a bold and principled position, affirming that access to the sea is an existential matter for Ethiopia—one directly tied to national development and long-term stability. This policy shift is not rooted in confrontation, but rather in a vision of peaceful negotiation and regional cooperation. The international recognition of Ethiopia’s maritime aspirations is evidenced by key diplomatic milestones, such as the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland and the Ankara Declaration, both of which signal growing international engagement with Ethiopia’s maritime strategy.
Parallel to its maritime access agenda, Ethiopia has also undertaken the revival of its naval power, which had been disbanded in 1996. At that time, the country became the sixth-largest landlocked state in the world without naval capabilities. Recognizing the strategic importance of maritime security in the Red Sea and the broader Horn of Africa, Ethiopia officially reestablished its navy in 2019, integrating this effort within a broader national security sector reform agenda under the leadership of Prime Minister Abiy.
The reconstitution of the Ethiopian Navy is not merely symbolic; it affirms the country’s strategic intent to safeguard its maritime interests, contribute to regional stability, and assert its presence in one of the world’s most geopolitically sensitive waterways. This move complements Ethiopia’s diplomatic efforts by projecting credible security capability – a necessary component of comprehensive strategic autonomy in the 21st century.
Ethiopia’s maritime strategy – comprising both access negotiation and naval revival – reflects a multidimensional approach to reclaiming economic, geopolitical, and security autonomy. It is a clear indication that Ethiopia is not only aware of its vulnerabilities but is actively transforming them into strategic assets through foresight, diplomacy, and institutional reform.
The Modernization of the Defense Sector
Under the leadership of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia has embarked on an ambitious and transformative plan to modernize its defense sector, with a central focus on technological innovation and military self-reliance (Horn Review, 2025). This initiative is not merely a response to emerging security challenges but a calculated move to assert strategic autonomy in national defense and security policy.
A key component of this reform has been the restructuring of state-owned defense enterprises, which are now being repositioned to function as both strategic assets and drivers of indigenous capability. The enhancement of the Homiche Ammunition Industry stands as a notable milestone in this process, reflecting Ethiopia’s commitment to reducing dependency on external arms suppliers and strengthening domestic production capacity. This development illustrates the growing importance placed on securing sovereign control over critical defense infrastructure.
In parallel, the inauguration of SkyWin Aeronautics Industries represents a watershed moment in Ethiopia’s military-industrial trajectory. By establishing a foundation for aeronautical innovation and airpower capability, the government has signaled a decisive shift toward a modernized and technologically equipped defense architecture. This not only expands Ethiopia’s operational capacity but also opens up new possibilities for regional and international security cooperation through innovation-driven defense diplomacy.
More broadly, the modernization of Ethiopia’s defense sector must be understood as a strategic imperative in a complex and evolving geopolitical landscape. Amid growing internal security demands and external pressures, a capable and self-reliant defense system ensures the resilience, sovereignty, and preparedness of the state across multiple dimensions—political, territorial, and technological.
Ultimately, these developments reflect a vision of defense that is not solely concerned with conventional military strength, but one that is deeply integrated with Ethiopia’s broader strategic autonomy agenda. By investing in innovation, indigenous capacity, and institutional reform, Ethiopia is laying the groundwork for a defense posture that is self-sustaining, adaptive, and globally relevant.
Conclusion: Sustaining the Momentum Toward Strategic Autonomy
The wide-ranging initiatives undertaken under the leadership of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed clearly underscore that Ethiopia is on the right trajectory toward advancing strategic autonomy across multiple critical sectors. From urban transformation and food sovereignty to maritime access, naval revival, and defense modernization, these efforts collectively demonstrate a coherent vision aimed at enhancing national resilience, sovereignty, and global agency.
However, it must be acknowledged that the path to strategic autonomy is neither linear nor easy. The journey is fraught with structural challenges, internal complexities, and external pressures. As such, unwavering national commitment, institutional coherence, and strategic patience are essential to ensure that current gains are consolidated and sustained.
Moving forward, two priorities stand out as foundational:
- First, diversifying Ethiopia’s international partnerships – regionally and globally – will provide the strategic flexibility needed to navigate an increasingly multipolar world.
- Second, fostering economic self-sufficiency through domestic capacity building, innovation, and value-added production remains indispensable to reducing external dependencies.
In sum, strategic autonomy is not a destination but a continuous process of building national agency, resilience, and adaptive capability. Ethiopia’s current momentum offers a strong foundation. What is required now is strategic consistency and visionary leadership to translate this potential into a sustainable and self-reliant future.
References
Addis Standard. (2024). News: Ethiopia’s quest to access sea not a matter of “luxury but of survival”, premier’s security advisor briefs military attachés, reps of international partners.
Bell et al. (2024). Trump’s Return: A Second Wake-Up Call for European Strategic Autonomy? Available at https://apcoworldwide.com
Ethiopian News Agency. (2024). Major Goal of Corridor Dev’t Building Better City, Country for Future Generation available at https://www.ena.et/
FDRE Ministry of Finance. (2024). A Homegrown Economic Reform Agenda: A Pathway to Prosperity available at https://www.mofed.gov.et
Girma, M., & Mulatu, Z. (2025). Evaluating corridor development initiatives and their effects in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Urban, Planning and Transport Research, 13(1).
Horn Review. (2025). Dr Abdi Zenebe on Ethiopia’s Pursuit for Strategic Autonomy, the Delicate Balance Between Foreign Aid and Self-Sufficiency. Available at https://hornreview.org
Horn Review. (2025).Ethiopia’s Defense Modernization: Strategic Power & Sovereignty available https://hornreview.org. OCP Policy Center. (2017). African Union: What are the Possible Options for Strategic Autonomy? Available at https://www.policycenter.m
About the author
Suadiq Sufian (PhD), Senior Researcher at the Institute of Foreign Affairs
He can be reached at suadiq2008@gmail.com
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