Executive Summary
Ethiopia’s diplomatic strategy, shaped by the Trump administration’s transactional diplomacy, reflects a pragmatic approach designed to avoid unnecessary diplomatic friction while fostering mutually beneficial partnerships with global powers. While Ethiopia engages with the United States on trade, investment, and security, it also continues to strengthen its relationship with China, particularly in infrastructure development. Ethiopia’s strategy is to work with whichever global power aligns with its development goals and regional security needs, avoiding entanglement in geopolitical rivalries. This flexible approach prioritizes Ethiopia’s sovereignty, ensuring that it benefits from collaborations with powers that share its interests, rather than being caught in a tug-of-war between global competitors.
Introduction
Ethiopia’s foreign policy has always been grounded in the pursuit of stability and development rather than aligning with one global power over another. For decades, the country has skillfully navigated a complex geopolitical environment, engaging with both the United States and China when their interests align with Ethiopia’s goals. Ethiopia has been a key partner for the U.S. in regional security, peacekeeping, and counterterrorism efforts in the Horn of Africa, while at the same time fostering strong economic ties with China, particularly in infrastructure development. Under the Trump administration’s transactional diplomacy, Ethiopia’s engagement with both powers highlights its commitment to pragmatic, interest-based cooperation. Ethiopia does not see itself as a pawn in the U.S.-China rivalry; instead, it seeks to work with whichever global power supports its aspirations for economic growth, security, and sovereignty.
This approach has become increasingly important as Ethiopia navigates the evolving global landscape. The country’s engagement with both the U.S. and China allows it to maintain flexibility and leverage the opportunities each power offers. Ethiopia’s priority remains focused on its national interests, regional stability, and fostering partnerships that contribute to its long-term development, without becoming ensnared in the geopolitical rivalries that dominate global politics.
Ethiopia’s Pragmatic Diplomacy: Engaging with Global Powers
Ethiopia’s relationship with both the United States and China reflects a diplomatic policy of calculated pragmatism. The U.S. remains an important partner, especially in regional security, where Ethiopia’s leadership in peacekeeping missions, such as those in Somalia and South Sudan, aligns with American counterterrorism and security interests in the region. Ethiopia’s peacekeeping efforts, combined with its strategic position in the Horn of Africa, make it an indispensable player in the US broader security strategy.
However, Ethiopia has made it clear that it will not allow itself to be drawn into a confrontation between the U.S. and China. Rather than aligning with one over the other, Ethiopia continues to engage both countries where their interests overlap with its own developmental and security objectives. Ethiopia works with the U.S. in areas like technology, agribusiness, and regional peacekeeping, and it engages China primarily in infrastructure and industrial development. While the U.S. has expressed concerns over China’s growing influence in Africa, Ethiopia’s position remains one of non-alignment in the geopolitical contest. It focuses instead on working with whichever power can provide support for its national goals without compromising its independence.
Ethiopia’s foreign policy remains centered on ensuring its sovereignty and developmental path, without being coerced into a position of dependency or rivalry between the U.S. and China. This balanced approach has allowed Ethiopia to avoid diplomatic tensions, focusing instead on building a stable and diversified set of relationships that serve its long-term interests.
Economic Opportunities and Strategic Engagement
Ethiopia’s economic diplomacy is a clear reflection of its pragmatic approach. Its membership in the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) offers preferential access to U.S. markets, providing Ethiopia with significant opportunities in sectors like textiles, agriculture, and manufacturing. This access helps Ethiopia diversify its economy, attract foreign direct investment (FDI), and create jobs, all of which are critical for its long-term development. Ethiopia welcomes these opportunities without being drawn into broader geopolitical rivalries. Its economic engagement with the U.S. is based on shared interests in economic growth, technological advancement, and industrialization.
At the same time, Ethiopia’s ties with China have been instrumental in the country’s infrastructure development. China’s investments in sectors such as transportation, energy, and telecommunications have been crucial for Ethiopia’s modernization. These projects are not seen as a challenge to Ethiopia’s relationships with other global powers, but rather as essential elements of the country’s growth strategy. While China’s presence in Africa, and specifically in Ethiopia, raises concerns in Washington, Ethiopia continues to work with China in a way that aligns with its own development agenda. It does so without allowing its economic relationship with China to dictate its broader diplomatic choices.
In this context, Ethiopia’s economic strategy is one of diversification and balance. By engaging with both the U.S. and China in ways that align with its development goals, Ethiopia avoids being caught in a position of over-reliance on any single global power, ensuring that it remains an autonomous actor in global geopolitics.
Security Cooperation: Maintaining Strategic Independence
Ethiopia’s role in regional security has long been a central pillar of its relationship with the United States. Its leadership in peacekeeping and counterterrorism efforts, particularly within the African Union framework, is invaluable to U.S. strategic interests in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia’s participation in peacekeeping operations in Somalia and South Sudan enhances its geopolitical standing and strengthens its ties with the U.S. This collaboration in regional security is a mutually beneficial partnership that is not contingent on aligning with either the U.S. or China in other areas of foreign policy.
However, Ethiopia’s security cooperation with the U.S. is not an exclusive arrangement. Ethiopia works with all parties that contribute to its regional security objectives, and its engagement with China in infrastructure development is not seen as a contradiction to its security cooperation with the U.S. Ethiopia’s foreign policy remains focused on advancing its national security goals, while avoiding any diplomatic conflicts or alignment that could undermine its autonomy. Whether working with the U.S. on counterterrorism or with China on infrastructure, Ethiopia remains committed to a balanced, non-aligned approach to its security cooperation.
The ongoing dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) with Egypt exemplifies Ethiopia’s diplomatic pragmatism. While Ethiopia continues to engage with Egypt and other regional actors to resolve the dispute peacefully, it has maintained its position on the dam’s construction as a matter of national sovereignty. In this regard, Ethiopia seeks to resolve tensions through dialogue and diplomacy, avoiding confrontations that would disrupt its broader relationships with the U.S., China, or other regional powers.
Conclusion
Ethiopia’s foreign policy is characterized by a commitment to sovereignty, stability, and pragmatic diplomacy. Rather than being drawn into geopolitical rivalries between the U.S. and China, Ethiopia focuses on working with whichever global powers share its strategic interests. Its relationships with both the U.S. and China are driven by mutual benefits, not by political or ideological alignment. Ethiopia’s approach is one of balance and flexibility—seeking partnerships that advance its national development goals while avoiding diplomatic tensions that could undermine its long-term stability.
This pragmatic and independent approach has allowed Ethiopia to become a respected regional leader, cultivating partnerships based on shared interests and avoiding the geopolitical traps that often entangle other nations. By prioritizing its sovereignty and maintaining its autonomy in foreign policy, Ethiopia continues to shape its future on its own terms, securing its place in the evolving global order.
About the authors
Tesfaye Bezabih (PhD) is a lead researcher of Europe & America Affairs & Chief of Staff at the Institute of Foreign Affairs.
Blen Mamo (@_PoliticsAddict) IFA Research Associate
Disclaimer:
The opinions stated in this article solely belong to the authors and do not reflect the views or positions of the IFA